Elkhorn Slough Ecological Forecasting II

The Elkhorn Slough has experienced a dynamic past and is anticipated to change more in the future as the marsh continues to subside and sea level rises. This image captures the past changes in NDVI through Landsat imagery, present marsh vegetative health in NDVI through Sentinel 2A imagery and future marsh health predicted by the Marsh Equilibrium Model. Image Credit: Elkhorn Slough Ecological Forecasting II Team.

Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Understand the Effects of Sea Level Rise and Climatic Variation on Blue Carbon Sequestration, Marshland Extent, and Vegetation Health in California's Elkhorn Slough

Elkhorn Slough is an ecosystem of high biodiversity found in Monterey Bay, California that protects coastline erosion, naturally filters water, provides critical habitat for unique species, and sequesters carbon. However, Elkhorn Slough is experiencing tremendous loss of its marshland extent and stress to vegetation due to threats of rising sea levels and climatic variation. These changes present an opportunity to identify spatial changes and patterns utilizing remotely sensed imagery and forecast the resilience of the slough under different climatic scenarios. This study used Landsat imagery to detect growth and loss within the slough from 1997 to present, and map the slough's evolution across time and space following large El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. In addition, this study integrated Sentinel-2 and Airborne Visible and Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) to compare current day marsh extent and health with in situ data provided by Elkhorn Slough National Estuarine Research Reserve (ESNERR). The Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM) also incorporates inputs from in situ data to predict the Elkhorn Slough's resilience and adaptation to suspended sediment variations and sea level rise scenarios. These comprehensive historical analyses, in conjunction with the present-day assessment of marsh resilience from the model, offer spatial and temporal insights into Elkhorn Slough's ecological feedbacks. The results from this study will inform ESNERR of Elkhorn Slough's condition to help future management of this important ecosystem.


Project Video:
How Blue is the Slough? Forecasting Sea Level Rise in California's Elkhorn Slough
Location
NASA Ames Research Center
Term
Fall 2016
Partner(s)
Elkhorn Slough National Estuarine Research Reserve (ESNERR)
USGS, Western Geographic Science Center
NASA Earth Observations
Landsat 5, TM
Landsat 8, OLI
Sentinel-2, MSI
AVIRIS
Team
Melanie Feen (Point of Contact)
Hannah Friedrich
Stephanie Ly
Advisor(s)
Dr. Juan L. Torres-Pérez (Bay Area Environmental Research Institute)
Dr. Sherry L. Palacios (Bay Area Environmental Research Institute)

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